Circana Growth Insights

Observations and Insights Across the Retail Landscape

Circana’s Don Unser, president of thought leadership and Marshal Cohen, chief industry advisor for the retail industry, share observations and insights into the nearly $3 trillion U.S. retail landscape.  Tapping into Circana’s Complete Store™ measurement of online and offline sales across CPG, general merchandise and foodservice, retailers, manufacturers and operators will learn how consumer behaviors are impacting shopping today, and how they can plan for what comes next.   

Highlights:  

Consumers view of grocery shopping is an exercise of “extreme essentials,” indicating they are grudgingly paying higher prices for fast-moving consumer goods. Consumers’ approach to general merchandise, however, is with a “discrete discretionary” mindset, where they need to replenish items that are nearing the end of their lifecycle, such as for well-worn activewear.  

Retailers and manufacturers have been focused on share growth, but by the end of 2023 and into 2024, expect a shift in outlook to be about margin growth. The pie, folks, isn’t getting any bigger.  

Learn the impact that economic indicators such as jobs, wages, online shopping, even work-from-home is having on consumer spending, particularly for “potent purchases” and “impact purchases.”  

Food and Beverage Consumer Trends — Frugal Fatigue

As consumers wrestle with inflation and resume busy lifestyles, it’s critical to stay ahead of their shifting consumption trends. Circana now provides the most complete view of the $1.5 trillion CPG retail and foodservice landscape in the U.S. — from supply chain through consumption — so you can unlock business growth. Circana’s Joan Driggs, Vice President of Content and Thought Leadership and David Portalatin, Senior Vice President and Industry Advisor, Food and Foodservice, highlight the clarity this new capability uncovers.

Highlights:

• Identify the daypart that reverted to pre-pandemic volume.
• Understand how the notion of home centricity started before the pandemic but accelerated between 2020 and 2021.
• Explore the ways the industry’s affordability can uniquely support consumers experiencing frugal fatigue and seeking to reward themselves or boost their mental and emotional well-being.

Fresh Pulse: Strategies Amid Declining Volume

Volume is down more than 4% across the store in February, but a little less so in fresh departments. Despite the dim outlook, Jonna Parker, principal of Circana’s Fresh Center of Excellence, and Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, highlight some bright spots in fresh and share some creative promo strategies they’ve seen, as well as some valuable insights on pricing.  

Key takeaways:  

• Fresh – and especially the meat department – is a three-legged stool for 2023: affordability, permissibility, and favorability.
• As cash-strapped and frustrated shoppers search for deals, consider “stacking promos” or shelf tags that remind shoppers how much prices have dropped for certain products.
• Be careful with pricing strategies, however. Use data to understand price sensitivity and learn which tactics will “move the needle.”  

The Future of Snacking

Snacking is a consumer barometer for mood, behavior or even how busy we are. While snacking helped us cope or stay entertained during the pandemic, now it reflects our return to active lifestyles. Darren Seifer, food and beverage industry analyst, shares insights on snacking trends, how different generations approach snacking and opportunities for snacking success.

Key takeaways:

• We snack differently depending on age. The youngest consumers’ snacking is controlled by their parents, who are looking for healthy options to tide kids over to the next meal.
• It’s not teens who are the heaviest snackers. It’s consumers in their 40s, but currently, those Gen Xers aren’t the biggest populations, so they’re not driving much growth.
• Immunity is less important now than during the pandemic, but digestive and calming attributes are still sought.

Fresh Pulse: Addressing the Challenges of 2023

Retailers and their CPG partners need to pull out all the stops in 2023 to acknowledge and support shoppers as they work to balance health, time and budgets. Promotional creativity and operational excellence should be foundational in building trust with shoppers. Jonna Parker, principal of IRI’s Fresh Center of Excellence, and IRI partner Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, offer up strategies for winning in grocery in 2023 and beyond. 

Key takeaways:  

• Jonna Parker warns that “when you stand for everything, you stand for nothing” in today’s competitive grocery landscape.  
• Consumers are looking for solution support and education from grocers.
• With ongoing labor shortages and younger shoppers looking for new ways of shopping, the grocery industry is at a pivotal moment of change. 

Consumer Demand Revealed in Book Sales

According to Kristen McLean, Executive Director, Industry Analyst, NPD Books & Entertainment, books are “the idea market.” And given her view across 800 million units and 6,000 subject categories, she is capturing ideas at the intersections of discovery, consumption and purchasing. For the CPG and Gen Merch industries, the insights from book sales are a barometer for demand, but also a catalyst for innovation.  

 

Key takeaways:

• The TikTok generation, those aged 35 and younger, have outsized influence, recommending not only what we read, but how we spend our time and what we consume.
• Books provide insight into CPG consumption trends. Cookbooks focused on convenience and easy-prep meals are in, but there are also increasing sales of titles for baby food.
• Even though younger consumers are fans of sustainability and thrift, they also have room for premium and aspire to luxury. Opportunities – think licensing!

CES Podcast No. 4: How Tech is Enhancing the Consumer Experience

In the final CES podcast episode, NPD colleagues Ben Arnold, consumer technology industry analyst and Joe Derochowski, home and home improvement industry advisor, share their highlights from the big event, including how technology is enhancing – and enabling – the consumer experience.

 

Highlights:  

• Initiatives including the Home Connectivity Alliance work to bring smart appliances together for an easier and more robust consumer experience.
• More consumer health and wellness needs are being met with technology across new categories, including bathmats that read body composition and pillows that support quality sleep.
• Technology is also making greater enablement possible, from voice-activate kitchen appliances and customizable gaming consoles to beauty and personal care applicators.  

CES Podcast No. 3: IT and TV Highlights from CES

NPD’s consumer technology industry advisor Paul Gagnon and retail IT and B2B technology industry analyst Mike Crosby share highlights from CES in Las Vegas. The good news for tech buffs: Innovation is making a comeback after the pandemic years’ focus on operational efficiency and supply chain challenges.

 

Highlights:

• Performance and power are back, especially in support of gamers, with more efficient and powerful monitors that are also larger and have improved cooling. But consider them portable rather than mobile devices. 
• A lot of computer and TV purchases were made during the pandemic. Manufacturers and providers should be gearing up for the replacement wave that will occur in 2024-2025. 
• Integrating TVs into home décor is about the only new news for TVs, but connected TV platform competition is heating up. Now, it’s about the content, not the hardware. 

CES Podcast No. 2: Technology for a Better Life

Recapping their Consumer Electronics Show presentation, “7 Ways the Consumer Electronics Consumer Has Changed,” NPD colleagues Ben Arnold and Paul Gagnon illustrate the growing value consumers derive from technology and the opportunities for manufacturers and developers to meet changing consumer needs.  

Key takeaways:  

• Consumer technology holds a greater place in the household budget than it did prior to the pandemic – and it’s due more to the value of technology than to inflation.   
• Aside from foundational technology, application innovation enables convenience, productivity and even personal health.  
• Marketing of electronics is changing: It’s increasingly migrating to digital channels and focusing more on the value tech brings to how people live their lives.

C-Suite Conversations: Creating a Sustainable Industry to Nurture Future Generations

IRI's Growth Insights C-Suite Conversations feature notable leaders talking about the future of CPG, retail and media. Our newest installment focuses on sustainable protein and features the perspectives of Simon Limmer, CEO of Silver Fern Farms, New Zealand's leading producer and marketer of grass-fed beef, lamb and venison. He is joined by Joe O’Connor, president of Applegate, a leading producer of natural and organic meats and cheeses that was acquired by Hormel Foods in 2015.

In this exclusive interview, Limmer and O'Connor first share their personal definitions of sustainability. O'Connor talks about Applegate's sustainability journey, from antibiotic-free meats to organic meats and now regenerative agriculture. Limmer details Silver Fern Farms' unique business model for sustainable meat production. And both look at future sustainability trends, who the sustainable meat consumer will be in 2030, and the crucial role progressive farmers play in making sustainable protein products possible.