Circana Unpacked

#161 - How Industry Should Adapt to Changing Approaches to Meals

When it comes to meals, U.S. consumers are having a 2020 moment, believes Darren Seifer, our industry advisor, Consumer Goods & Foodservice Insights. The percentage of meals sourced from retail for home consumption is nearly 87% in 2024, giving us a vibe of at-home behaviors during the pandemic. However, how we’re getting to those meals and what’s on the table is where shifts are occurring. Jonna Parker, team lead for our Fresh Foods Group, says grocery retail might be winning, but it’s not the stock-up of the pandemic times. Instead, it’s just-in-time shopping for specific meals, often with a view to how that meal will be extended to another occasion.

Highlights: 

• With persistent high inflation, consumers routinely try to stretch their food budget, from buying smaller amounts that fulfill a meal or two, to packing a lunch for work or eating what’s on hand to avoid waste.
• Retailers – and even operators – should embrace their role of curating assortment and making suggestions for meal solutions, especially for Gen Z, who haven’t landed on their weekly routines. 
• Approaches to meals change dramatically during the week. Easy one-dish meals might be the answer for a weekday, but weekend meals can be complicated, from-scratch affairs. 
• We have identified 6 billion annual occasions where consumers tell us they table their budget in favor of a celebration. This behavior helps explain positive sales of premium products and even the success of fast casual restaurants, both of which deliver quality and experience. 

#160 - The Food and Beverage Chronicles: Learning from Eating Patterns in America

Circana has been chronicling changing consumption behaviors in its Eating Patterns in America research for 39 years. David Portalatin, Circana’s senior vice president and industry advisor for food and foodservice, shares how insights from our research inform go-to-market strategies and innovation across CPG manufacturing, grocery retail, and foodservice. David also shares some of the biggest shifts taking place in recent generations, including how Starbucks reinvented the coffee occasion even as coffee consumption at home was declining. Does anyone remember the after-dinner cup of coffee?

Highlights:

• “Healthonomics” describes how consumers are balancing healthy choices amid persistent high inflation. Many consumers look for tiered offerings and base their purchases on their most desired attributes.
• Restaurant traffic is down, but restaurants will prevail. Consumers continue to place value on the food experience and service enjoyed while dining in restaurants.
• A ham sandwich has been the top lunch choice for 30 years or more. But the types of ham available, the emergence of artisanal breads, and different gourmet spreads have drastically changed the way it can be consumed.
• Where there’s innovation, there’s growth. Keep the innovation pipelines flowing.

#159 - Innovation and Inspiration: Takeaways from the IDDBA Show

How can you use the biggest takeaways from the 2024 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association (IDDBA) show in June to help your business succeed? Jonna Parker, team lead of Circana’s Fresh Foods Group, and Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, share highlights of new technologies, the challenges of balancing assortments by generational differences, the value of special occasions, and other lessons you should know for the rest of the year and beyond.

Highlights:

• In addition to major holidays, consumers celebrate an average of 18 occasions annually. These events not only include more people, but they also represent moments when shoppers are willing to splurge to bring joy to others. Retailers are responding with more solutions and inspiration, from party trays to specialty baked goods.
• Innovation isn’t always about new. Brands and retailers should inspire consumers to use products they’re already buying in new ways.
• Technology can potentially offset labor challenges, but including high-touch offerings like hot bars and salad bars should be decided on a store-by-store or regional basis. Not all areas will support the investment.

#158 - What’s the Deal with Dupes?

Dupes, or replicas, of premium products are having a moment. Fueled by high inflation and turbocharged by social media, dupes are being purchased and touted with pride by U.S. consumers attracted to high-quality, low-priced items. Circana analysts Maggie Swiatkowski, Kristen Classi-Zummo, and Beth Goldstein illustrate how dupes are playing out across categories from apparel, accessories, and beauty to consumer tech, home goods, and food. Is this the dawn of a new era for private brands?

Highlights:

• While dupes appeal to consumers of all ages, younger consumers are the most enthusiastic, given their strong engagement with social media.
• More than half of consumers have purchased a dupe and most would buy another.
• Even the products being duped benefit from the exposure and comparison of the replicas.

#157 - Lean Into Consumers’ Desire to Escape

Nostalgia, inspiration, and self-care are trends driving consumer escapism. Inspired by her report, The Great Escape: Exploring the Rise of the Joy Economy, Kristen McLean, senior executive director of Circana’s Entertainment Knowledge group, highlights opportunities for connecting to consumers’ desire for escapism. Also important, she reviews what not to do.

Highlights:

• Consumers are looking to escape negativity in the world. The joy economy provides manufacturers and retailers with the opportunity to serve consumers a positive experience.
• By putting the consumer at the center of decision-making, brands and retailers can benefit from participating in the joy economy. When done authentically, they can increase consumer loyalty.
• Younger consumers are looking for a deeper dialogue with brands. They are particularly more vocal about their expectations. Listening to these engaged consumers can fuel ideas for more meaningful connections.

#156 - Strategies to Maintain New Product Momentum

There are four key principles fueling successful innovation beyond launch: distribution growth, trial, marketing support, and product expansion. None of these should be considered stand-alone strategies. Lisa Maas, principal and lead for Circana’s Innovation practice, shares examples from New Product Pacesetters on how to achieve growth in the years after launch.

Highlights:

• Table stakes should include setting the right expectations for sales and distribution.
• Marketing and support investment might ease from a peak of 25% of sales in year one. But support, easily in the 6% range, should continue.
• Retailers will continue to monitor the ability of products to keep shoppers coming back. New forms, new occasions, and moving into adjacencies are easy ways for consumers to remain loyal to preferred brands.

#155 - Emotions and Inflation Impact Consumer Choices

Consumers continue to feel the pinch of inflation. While food remains a priority, consumers face tough choices when making any purchases, but emotions also impact their decisions. Jonna Parker, principal, fresh foods, and Darren Seifer, industry advisor, consumer goods and foodservice insights, discuss the consumer mindset and how competition for the food dollar plays out across food destinations, channels, and stores. 

Highlights: 

• Heat-and-eat and items and cooking sauces for easy meals are rising in demand. Consumers want to shave cooking time, but they don’t want to compromise on taste or experience. 
• Content creators have introduced consumers to the versatility of cottage cheese. Opportunities exist to reframe categories and inspire consumers. 
• Donut sales are up and not just because they’re a fun morning treat. Donuts have what CPG consumers are looking for: they’re portable, convenient, ready-to-eat, and satisfying across dayparts.
• Consumers seek convenience, but they are agnostic about where they purchase. Cooked, and often shredded, chicken is showing up as a winner across channels, including club, grocery, super centers, and specialty grocers. 

#154 - Beverage Alcohol Consumption Reveals a Generational Divide

Beverage alcohol consumption has changed dramatically in recent years. The pandemic impacted the way people consumed adult beverages, and younger consumers aged 21 and older are driving consumption of ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage alcohol products. Scott Scanlon, executive vice president of Circana’s Beverage Alcohol practice, provides insight into these changes and the outlook for 2024 and beyond.

Highlights: 

• Typically, as adults aged 21 and older begin drinking, their first choices are beer or wine. More recently, young adults aged 21 and older are starting with RTD beverages, particularly spirits-based options.
• Despite the vast array of beverage choices, beverage alcohol consumption is softening across generations. However, premium beverages are still showing growth.
• Much of the allure of RTD beverage alcohol among younger consumers is with packaging, including on-the-go options like ball form, slim cans, and aseptic packaging.
• Whiskey, tequila, spirits-based RTDs, and imported beer from Mexico continue to fuel the beverage alcohol market.

#153 - CPG Growth Leaders: Learn From the Best

Our distribution, velocity, and penetration data, along with other metrics, shows us the top CPG Growth Leaders. But by listening to and observing the top companies, we can identify successful integrating strategies. Circana’s Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor, consumer goods and foodservice insights, and Cara Loeys, principal, corporate CPG thought leadership, describe how the annual CPG Growth Leaders report is developed and share insights for CPG companies large and small.

Highlights: 

• Companies have differing challenges based on their portfolios, which is why we study sales. While successful companies are laser focused on the consumer, they differ in how they leverage other strategies, including integrated engagement, continuous newness, the premium-value bifurcation, and embedding artificial intelligence.
• Newness with a twist is a better way to view innovation, given that changes can be small but prescriptive to meet consumer needs or even illuminate new usage and consumption occasions.
• Growth in a challenging market is hard to achieve, but truly integrating strategies provides the path to success.

#152 - How Private Brands Are Gaining Share

In 2023, CPG private labels grew dollar and unit sales thanks to the unique confluence of retailers investing in their own brands and consumers facing high inflation. Mary Ellen Lynch, principal of Circana’s center store solutions practice, discusses private brand shoppers and what they’re looking for. 

Highlights: 

• While consumers of all affluency levels buy private brands, households with children, as well as millennial and Gen X households with no children, are top purchasers of private brands. 
• Shoppers have price memory for their favorite brands and want to get as close to those former prices as possible. This puts pantry items in the domain of private brands, which are gaining share within salty snacks, long dominated by name brands. 
• Retailers continue to support their mainstream brands with marketing that reinforces their premium features: convenience, health, how products fit with the way consumers cook, elevated flavors, and quality experiences.