Circana Growth Insights

Opting for Linear or Connected TV? The Answer Might be Both

Within the complex arena of marketing mix, linear TV and connected TV are viewed separately. Currently, CTV is having its moment, surpassing linear TV in return on ad spend. Circana’s Susan Kelly, solutions design, global solutions delivery and Kelly Dunham, delivery director, talk about execution and measurement of success for both approaches and the increasing value of targeting that is giving CTV its shine.  

Highlights:  

• Linear TV offers lower cost-per-impressions and provides a broader reach than connected TV. 
• Despite the higher cost-per-impression, advertisers are realizing a better return on ad spend with the targeted audiences connected TV reaches. 
• The sweet spot might be a combination of the reach of linear and the targeting audiences of CTV.  
• Measurement tools determine which levers (linear TV, CTV or other marketing strategies) are driving sales lifts.  
• Campaigns should be monitored mid-flight to ensure they’re connecting with the right audience, at the right time and with the right message.  

Pre-CES 2024: Looking for What’s Possible with Tech

The pandemic put the breaks on a lot of consumer tech innovation, so anticipation is building for CES 2024, when many companies will display their latest and greatest. Ben Arnold, Circana’s executive director, industry analyst, Consumer Technology, provides examples of innovation that go beyond tech gadgets and shares what he hopes to see at the show.  

Highlights:  

• From autonomous vehicles to drug discovery, artificial intelligence is making headlines. How will open-AI positively impact the daily lives of consumers?  
• Virtual reality hardware has been getting updates, but new applications are possible, from warehousing to personal fitness.   
• Circana research points to opportunities harness tech to empower consumers to take more control over their health.  
• Pet tech has been a darling of CES in recent years, but we’re due for a new wave of innovation. 
• Don’t miss Ben Arnold and Paul Gagnon’s CES presentation: Navigating Today’s Consumer Technology Market, January 8, in the West Hall, room 232, 2 pm. 

Black Friday Week Sales: Naughty or Nice?

Traditionally in the U.S., the day after Thanksgiving is Black Friday, which moves holiday shopping into high gear. While doorbusters have dwindled, brands and retailers work to lure shoppers with deals and experiences that set the tone for holiday sales. Circana’s Joe Derochowski, vice president and industry advisor, home and home improvement, and Ben Arnold, executive director, industry analyst, consumer technology, weigh in on Black Friday week results and discuss how their industries can claw back holiday sales.

Highlights:

• While not as bad as 2022, sales of home goods and consumer electronics were still down. The upside, gains were made compared to earlier periods of 2023.
• Different ways to shop and research is changing Black Friday traffic and extending Black Friday sales beyond a single day.
• Consumer electronics, once was a key category that brought shoppers out on Black Friday, now has to work for a share of household spend.
• Innovation is needed to reenergize the market and give consumers the new products and experiences they’re looking for.

Strengthening Retailer Differentiation

As middle-of-the-road grocery retail continues to get squeezed, reaching consumers before they make decisions becomes critical. In this Fresh Pulse episode, Jonna Parker, team lead, Circana’s Fresh Foods Group, and Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, share strategies retailers can use to highlight their points of differentiation, starting with elevating outside-the-store marketing.

• Retailers’ focus on in-store execution ignores pre-tailing, when consumers make their decisions of where to shop and what to buy, as well as post-tailing, their at-home experience with what was purchased.
• Foodservice leverages limited-time offers successfully, and it’s a great opportunity for retailers as well.
• Use heavy traffic departments, like produce and meat, to promote digital offers and encourage app adoption.

Small Appliances Reflect Our Need for Speed

Despite a forecasted sales decline of 4% - 5% through 2024, sales of small appliances remain elevated from pre-pandemic levels. To buck the negative trend, marketers should focus equally on messaging and innovation. Joe Derochowski, Circana’s vice president and industry advisor, Home and Home Improvement, shares his secret sauce for picking holiday winners and identifying opportunities for growth throughout the year.  

Highlights:  

• The replacement cycle for many small appliances may shrink from the traditional five to eight years given high usage throughout the pandemic.
• The top 10 items sold January through August are a great indicator of what will sell well during the winter gifting season.
• Holiday sales are anticipated to be down 4%, but there are ways to beat that by leaning into consumer behavior, especially the value we place on time.
• The Consumer Electronics Show, coming in January, is a great way to see the advancement of “smart,” including floor care, home comfort and personal care appliances. 

Consumer Tech Industry Pulse and Outlook

Both the economy and the replenishment cycle of products are negatively impacting the consumer technology industry. Paul Gagnon, Circana’s consumer technology industry advisor, shares his outlook for the coming holiday season and how he hopes the industry is preparing for the time when consumers will be spending again.  

• Moving to a new home is a great motivator for tech purchases, but high mortgage rates, resumption of student loan payments and high credit card interest rates are all weighing down the housing market.   
• Consumers report they’re willing to spend more for consumer electronics this holiday season, with TVs and PCs identified as intended purchases. However, consumers are looking for deals and they’re willing to wait for them. 
• The Consumer Electronics Show is around the corner, and Paul will be looking for genuine innovation, improvements to bundles of hardware + services, and whether home automation players finally come together in a single, simple ecosystem for the benefit of the consumer.  

Talking Turkey and the Reality of a Challenging Economy

Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, talks turkey – and economic pressures – with Circana’s Joan Driggs. Times are tough and while it’s critical to be realistic about economic pressures, it’s also an opportunity to dig deeper opportunities to connect with shoppers.  

Highlights:  

• When facing economic challenges, consumers revert to routines to avoid buyer's remorse, even with food items.
• Retailer and manufacturers have an opportunity to lean into the small celebrations that consumers embrace throughout the year, from family milestones to sporting events.
• Thanksgiving in 2023 might be the battle of retailers, many of which will be rolling back prices. Ultimately, Thanksgiving is the biggest food holiday of the year.
• Many households will right-size portions of some of the Thanksgiving meal to permit more options. Think preparing a turkey breast instead of a full bird to accommodate another roasted meat.  

Causal and Consumer Factors Fuel Demand Forecasting

To achieve growth, companies strive to predict what the consumer is likely to do in both the near term and long term. Optimal forecasting, according to Lance Goodridge, Circana’s executive vice president of Analytics and Insights, will fit with current performance, include appropriate and predictable causal factors, and be within the bounds of company objectives. No small feat.  

Highlights include:  

• While there will always be situations that can’t be predicted, like an epidemic, the right mix of causal factors, including inflation, weather patterns and finance rates, along with consumer behaviors, can lead to sound demand forecasts.
• Accurate forecasts can help companies make decisions about investments in innovation, assortment, and production levels.
• What spurred demands in the past, like a promoted price, might not work as well in the future. Knowing the shopping journey can help determine specific purchase influencers.  

Frozen Foods Accelerate the Speed to Table

The unique value proposition of frozen foods is not getting the attention it deserves. Based on her webinar, Icy Hot Insights: Frozen Trends, Sally Lyons Wyatt, executive vice president and Practice Leader, Circana, outlines the many definitions of value that frozen addresses.

Highlights.  

• Heavy frozen entrée buyers account for 36% more restaurant trips than the average customer. Frozen can compete on restaurant quality, cuisine type, and flavor experience, quickly and in the comfort of your own home.
• Manufacturers and retailers have opportunities to promote low cost per serving and ways frozen foods can stretch the food dollar.
• There are so many ways frozen foods aren’t being promoted, including as waste minimizers, as recipe ingredients for trending kitchen appliances, or as options that fit special diets.
• Ice cream, sherbet and frozen novelties represent an anchor that attracts a wide cross-section of consumers. Leverage the power of frozen treats to promote other frozen items.  

How Digital is Defining Grocery’s Long Game

In this Fresh Pulse episode, Jonna Parker, team lead, Circana’s Fresh Foods Group, highlights consumer purchasing behavior in the meat department. Promotions aren’t seeing expected lifts, purchases are designed for minimal waste, and it’s often social platforms and digital retail apps that are guiding shoppers.  

Highlights:  

• More consumers are using retail apps to plan shopping and load deals to their loyalty cards.  
• As shoppers visit fewer stores, being part of the consideration set is critical.  
• Younger shoppers are more likely than older shoppers to associate all types of channels, from Big Box to discount, as destinations for fresh foods.
• Grocery is winning in fresh by leveraging FOMO – fear of missing out.