Circana Growth Insights

Emotions and Inflation Impact Consumer Choices

Consumers continue to feel the pinch of inflation. While food remains a priority, consumers face tough choices when making any purchases, but emotions also impact their decisions. Jonna Parker, principal, fresh foods, and Darren Seifer, industry advisor, consumer goods and foodservice insights, discuss the consumer mindset and how competition for the food dollar plays out across food destinations, channels, and stores. 

Highlights: 

• Heat-and-eat and items and cooking sauces for easy meals are rising in demand. Consumers want to shave cooking time, but they don’t want to compromise on taste or experience. 
• Content creators have introduced consumers to the versatility of cottage cheese. Opportunities exist to reframe categories and inspire consumers. 
• Donut sales are up and not just because they’re a fun morning treat. Donuts have what CPG consumers are looking for: they’re portable, convenient, ready-to-eat, and satisfying across dayparts.
• Consumers seek convenience, but they are agnostic about where they purchase. Cooked, and often shredded, chicken is showing up as a winner across channels, including club, grocery, super centers, and specialty grocers. 

Beverage Alcohol Consumption Reveals a Generational Divide

Beverage alcohol consumption has changed dramatically in recent years. The pandemic impacted the way people consumed adult beverages, and younger consumers aged 21 and older are driving consumption of ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage alcohol products. Scott Scanlon, executive vice president of Circana’s Beverage Alcohol practice, provides insight into these changes and the outlook for 2024 and beyond.

Highlights: 

• Typically, as adults aged 21 and older begin drinking, their first choices are beer or wine. More recently, young adults aged 21 and older are starting with RTD beverages, particularly spirits-based options.
• Despite the vast array of beverage choices, beverage alcohol consumption is softening across generations. However, premium beverages are still showing growth.
• Much of the allure of RTD beverage alcohol among younger consumers is with packaging, including on-the-go options like ball form, slim cans, and aseptic packaging.
• Whiskey, tequila, spirits-based RTDs, and imported beer from Mexico continue to fuel the beverage alcohol market.

CPG Growth Leaders: Learn From the Best

Our distribution, velocity, and penetration data, along with other metrics, shows us the top CPG Growth Leaders. But by listening to and observing the top companies, we can identify successful integrating strategies. Circana’s Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor, consumer goods and foodservice insights, and Cara Loeys, principal, corporate CPG thought leadership, describe how the annual CPG Growth Leaders report is developed and share insights for CPG companies large and small.

Highlights: 

• Companies have differing challenges based on their portfolios, which is why we study sales. While successful companies are laser focused on the consumer, they differ in how they leverage other strategies, including integrated engagement, continuous newness, the premium-value bifurcation, and embedding artificial intelligence.
• Newness with a twist is a better way to view innovation, given that changes can be small but prescriptive to meet consumer needs or even illuminate new usage and consumption occasions.
• Growth in a challenging market is hard to achieve, but truly integrating strategies provides the path to success.

How Private Brands Are Gaining Share

In 2023, CPG private labels grew dollar and unit sales thanks to the unique confluence of retailers investing in their own brands and consumers facing high inflation. Mary Ellen Lynch, principal of Circana’s center store solutions practice, discusses private brand shoppers and what they’re looking for. 

Highlights: 

• While consumers of all affluency levels buy private brands, households with children, as well as millennial and Gen X households with no children, are top purchasers of private brands. 
• Shoppers have price memory for their favorite brands and want to get as close to those former prices as possible. This puts pantry items in the domain of private brands, which are gaining share within salty snacks, long dominated by name brands. 
• Retailers continue to support their mainstream brands with marketing that reinforces their premium features: convenience, health, how products fit with the way consumers cook, elevated flavors, and quality experiences. 

CPG Retail Is Rethinking the Competition

Our expansion of multi-outlet data, MULO+, increases point-of-sale (POS) coverage 15%, providing 90% accuracy of CPG dollar sales sourced from census POS data. Jonna Parker, Team Lead, Circana’s Fresh Foods Group, and Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, share a glimpse of this new, expanded view of the competitive grocery landscape. Discover why it’s critical for retailers to understand the go-to-market approach taken by all channels to determine their point of differentiation.

Highlights:

• Consumers shop up to an average of 12 retailers, including club, value, mass merchandisers, and traditional retail. Chances are, all will have the fresh basics. Don’t assume traditional grocery is the first choice for fresh. 
• With big box retailers and club stores focused on everyday low prices, high-low pricing in traditional grocery retail doesn’t drive the trips it once did. 
• Most Americans celebrate 18 food-focused occasions each year. Retailers need to think beyond the big holidays to surprise, delight, and support shoppers. 
• Data from early 2024 shows that people are eating more meals at home, but they’re not necessarily cooking from scratch. Learn how retailers can best support hybrid meals. 

The Diversity Advantage

Diversity, equity, and inclusion in business has positive benefits for workers, for business results, and for people and communities engaging with these businesses. Cecilia Ogude, Circana’s senior vice president, Global Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, breaks down the benefits and talks about what’s missing without DEI. 

• Diversity doesn’t just focus on one element or group and doesn’t diminish the value of one group over another. It includes and supports everyone.  
• Equity – not equality – gives everyone access to opportunities.  
• Inclusion allows individuals the freedom to bring their lived experiences to their work, contributing to a rich corporate tapestry.  
• Without support for DEI, businesses stand to lose a connection among employees, leading to reduced collaboration and innovation.   

Leaning into Generational Differences at CPG Retail

Some 93% of Gen Z and younger millennials are changing their behavior based on higher prices, a much higher percentage than previous generations. Stepping back for a wider view, Jonna Parker, team lead, Circana’s Fresh Foods Group, believes these younger consumers have been impacted by more trauma, from terrorism and a recession to pandemic and current inflation. Given the world they’ve grown up in, they aren’t going to become like their older counterparts. Parker and Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, dive into generational differences and how retailers and brands can connect.

Highlights:

• 2024 is an inflection point where generational differences in eating, cooking, and shopping will need to be balanced.
• Retailers and brands need to recognize that older consumers still shop the separate store departments (such as butcher, dairy, and produce) while younger consumers rely more on cross-merchandising that brings different departments together for easy solutions.
• Even as butcher service counters are closing, store butchers have social currency, providing service via recommendations and tips on social media platforms.

Retailers Recognize the Value of SNAP Shoppers

Nearly 13% of Americans, or 17% of U.S. households, receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance benefits, yet they represent nearly a third of total store sales. Sally Lyons Wyatt, Circana’s global executive vice president for consumer goods and foodservice insights, talks about who is winning the SNAP shopper and strategies all retailers should use to engage this valuable shopper group.

Highlights:

• SNAP shoppers represent nearly 50% of dollar store sales, and nearly 40% of convenience channel sales.
• SNAP is intended as a short-term benefit, meaning that SNAP is always new to many recipients. Retailers can help onboard shoppers and navigate the store for SNAP-eligible purchases.
• Retailers that make online search easy for SNAP shoppers will build loyalty that lasts after the benefits are no longer needed.

How To Win the Trip in Grocery Retail

Moving from full-service to self-service in meat and deli departments, increasing value-added offerings in produce and deli, these are just a few examples of grocery retail’s evolution. Jonna Parker, team lead, Circana’s Fresh Foods Group, and Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, advocate for learning about the most important shopper groups and meeting their changing needs.

Highlights:

• Baby boomers, long the biggest spenders, are on the cusp of being overtaken by Gen X and millennials. While it’s still important to please boomers, long-term success depends on answering the call of younger shoppers.
• Younger consumers start their shopping journey online. The key to winning store traffic is securing the shopper before they enter the store.
• While older consumers value service, younger shoppers look for relevance and experience; think solutions, not stalls.
• Low-price and fresh offerings are no longer a reason to shop a store. Point of difference and only-available-here offerings will drive traffic.

Improvements Outnumber New Consumer Tech Products at CES 2024

Most of the consumer tech innovation at the Consumer Electronics Show 2024 are enhancements to existing technology; think better quality audio and new capabilities. Despite lackluster levels of product innovation showcased at CES, Circana tech analyst Ben Arnold and audio analyst Ashley McCann are optimistic about opportunities in kitchen, home and audio for growth in the year ahead.   

Highlights:  

• While artificial intelligence was the buzzword at CES, AI hardware was harder to find. Chatbots in cars and a new keyboard function are standout examples.  
• Kitchen products that speed or improve cooking and mix cocktails were on display at CES, indicating increased innovation in the small home appliance space. 
• Products that support digital creators, including digital cameras and accessories, are experiencing sales growth.  
• There’s still penetration opportunity, especially among older consumer, for smart home products, including security cameras and smart lighting.